In a clash of two boxing titans, Terence “Bud” Crawford is attempting to achieve a feat no other male boxer has accomplished: becoming a three-division undisputed champion. To do this, he must defeat the reigning king of the super middleweight division, Saul “Canelo” Alvarez, a fighter who has never lost at 168 pounds.
This is a monumental challenge for Crawford, who is essentially jumping up three weight divisions for this fight. While he did have a tune-up bout a year ago against Israil Madrimov at junior middleweight, the biggest question remains: will the added weight sacrifice his speed and agility?
Crawford’s previous fight against Madrimov was far from a walkover. He didn’t look as dominant as he did at welterweight, and the fight was surprisingly close. Madrimov was able to disrupt Crawford’s rhythm with constant movement and feinting, and Crawford’s jab was not as effective as usual.
These vulnerabilities aren’t new. An analysis of Crawford’s fight against Egidijus “Mean Machine” Kavaliauskas reveals similar chinks in his armor. Kavaliauskas had success early on by using upper-body movement and feints, and even scored a perceived knockdown that was officially ruled a slip. Both Madrimov and Kavaliauskas were able to land hard right hands when Crawford fought in his southpaw stance, a defensive weakness he must fix if he hopes to survive Canelo’s overhand right—one of his most dangerous punches.
Crawford has the advantage of being able to switch stances between orthodox and southpaw, but he must use this strategically. He cannot afford to stay in the pocket for prolonged periods as he did against Madrimov and Kavaliauskas. This proved costly for Jermell Charlo, who also moved up in weight to fight Canelo and was ultimately forced to box from the outside for survival, landing only 71 punches.
Canelo’s main weakness is his heavy legs and his struggles against mobile, agile boxers. The key for Crawford will be to use tactical in-and-out movement without sacrificing his offensive output, a difficult task. While Canelo isn’t a high-volume puncher, he is incredibly accurate, with a total connect rate that ranks fifth in the sport. Crawford will get hit, and the question is whether his body can handle the power of a natural super middleweight.
Canelo, with a granite chin that has never seen the canvas in his professional career, has proven he can take a punch from the likes of Gennady Golovkin, Sergey Kovalev, and Dmitry Bivol. It is highly unlikely that Crawford’s power, at this weight, will deter him. For Canelo to win, he must exploit this size advantage by becoming the bully, attacking Crawford’s body and breaking down his guard.
Crawford has vowed to stand and exchange with Alvarez, a strategy that could be his downfall. If his performance against Madrimov is any indication, Crawford may find himself retreating more than he planned to simply survive. His margin for error is razor-thin; one mistake could prove fatal in this high-stakes matchup.
